Options Market Bets on $300 K Bitcoin Strike for June

As Bitcoin hovers around $112,000, the options market is flashing a bold vote of confidence: traders are loading up on June $300,000 call strikes, implying a near 168% rally in just five weeks. This remarkable positioning underscores the burgeoning optimism among institutional desks and sophisticated retail investors alike.

Market overview

Bitcoin’s recent consolidation between $108,000 and $115,000 has set the stage for what many see as a summer breakout. Trading volumes remain robust at $39.2 billion over the past 24 hours, while open interest in BTC perpetual futures eclipses $16 billion. “We’re in a low-volatility regime, which typically precedes explosive moves,” notes equity derivatives strategist Elena Fields.

Spot BTC is up 4.7% month-to-date, driven by ETF inflows and improving macro sentiment as U.S. inflation numbers showed cooling in April. Against this backdrop, call option premiums have rallied, especially at strikes far above spot.

Options landscape

The total notional for Bitcoin options hit $9.8 billion on May 29, the highest since March. Call open interest at the $300K strike for the June 27 expiry surged from $12 million to $58 million within three sessions. Put strikes remain anchored near spot, reflecting asymmetric risk positioning.

Skew metrics—a gauge of demand for upside vs downside—have inverted sharply, with the 25-delta call skew at -8.5%. “This indicates greater appetite for outsized gains than fear of a sell-off,” explains Deribit analyst Sofia Petrovic. Implied volatility for the June cycle sits at 61%, versus 48% on spot futures—hinting traders are paying up for optionality.

Strike bet details

June $300K calls were trading at roughly $1,450 per contract (delta ~0.12) as of May 29, costing $145 million notional per 10,000 contracts. Open interest across exchanges like Deribit, OKX, and LedgerX shows over 25,000 contracts outstanding—a tenfold increase since mid-May.

Major participants include quant funds running gamma scalping strategies and family offices seeking uncorrelated returns. Anecdotal reports suggest one European macro hedge fund acquired 5,000 June $300K covered calls, financing them by selling nearer-term puts at $100K strikes.

Implications

Bullish signal

When large market participants place deep out-of-the-money call bets, it often reflects conviction in a sustained rally. Historically, similar positioning ahead of year-end has correlated with 30–50% price advances in the subsequent six weeks, as gamma hedging by dealers amplifies spot moves.

Risks and challenges

That said, if Bitcoin fails to sustain momentum above $115K, call sellers could unwind hedges, causing rapid skew shifts and a potential shock to implied vol. Additionally, the cost of financing these long calls is non-trivial; a 10% drop in BTC spot would erode premium fast.

Conclusion

The June $300,000 strike bets paint a vivid picture: a market brimming with ambition for Bitcoin to more than double within weeks. While history shows the potential for swift rallies in such environments, traders should remain vigilant of volatility spikes and liquidity constraints in crypto options.

As the June expiry approaches, watching skew shifts, open interest changes, and dealer hedging flows will be crucial signals. If BTC can break above $120K convincingly, the stage will be set for an electrifying summer—one that could redefine Bitcoin’s path toward $200,000.

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